North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has declared an end to moratoriums on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests and threatened a demonstration of a "new strategic weapon" soon.
Analysts said the announcement, reported by state media on Wednesday, amounted to Kim putting a missile "to Donald Trump's head" — but warned that escalation by Pyongyang would probably backfire.
Washington was swift to respond, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urging Kim to "take a different course" and stressing that the US wanted "peace not confrontation" with the North, while Trump played down the development.
Pyongyang has previously fired missiles capable of reaching the entire US mainland, and has carried out six nuclear tests, the last of them 16 times more powerful than the Hiroshima blast, according to the highest estimates.
A self-imposed ban on such tests — Kim declared they were no longer needed — has been a centrepiece of the nuclear diplomacy between Pyongyang and Washington over the past two years, which has seen three meetings between Kim and the US president, but little tangible progress.
Any actual test is likely to infuriate Trump, who has repeatedly referred to Kim's "promise" to him not to carry them out, and has downplayed launches of shorter-range weapons.
Negotiations between the two sides have been largely deadlocked since the breakup of their Hanoi summit in February. The North set the US an end-of-2019 deadline for it to offer fresh concessions on sanctions relief, or it would adopt a "new way".
"There is no ground for us to get unilaterally bound to the commitment any longer," the official KCNA news agency cited Kim as telling top ruling party officials.
"The world will witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future," he added, referring to the North by its official name.
The full meeting of the central committee of the ruling Workers' Party was an indication of a major policy shift.
State television showed veteran newsreader Ri Chun Hee reading out the KCNA dispatch over footage of Kim addressing the officials and general imagery of the country.
The broadcast appeared to stand in place of Kim's usual New Year speech — normally a key moment in the North Korean political calendar.
Kim acknowledged the impact of international sanctions imposed on Pyongyang over its weapons programmes, but made clear that the North was willing to pay the price to preserve its nuclear capability.
"The US is raising demands contrary to the fundamental interests of our state and is adopting brigandish attitude," KCNA cited him as saying.
Washington had "conducted tens of big and small joint military drills which its president personally promised to stop" and sent high-tech military equipment to the South, he said.
– 'Geopolitical chicken' –
For months, Pyongyang has been demanding the easing of international sanctions imposed over its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, while Washington has insisted it take more tangible steps towards giving them up.
"North Korea has, in effect, put an ICBM to Donald Trump's head in order to gain the two concessions it wants most: sanctions relief and some sort of security guarantee," said Harry Kazianis of the Center for the National Interest in Washington.
"Kim Jong-un is playing a dangerous game of geopolitical chicken," he added.
The strategy was risky, he said, as Washington was likely to respond with "more sanctions, an increased military presence in East Asia and more fire and fury style threats coming from Donald Trump's Twitter account".
Kim's moratorium comments were "ominous", said Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha University in Seoul, but added that he could be looking to "elicit concessions by approaching Trump's red line without crossing it".
The US has already indicated that it will react if the North carries out a long-range missile test.
Speaking to Fox News and CBS after Kim's announcement, Pompeo said a resumption of nuclear and missile tests would be "deeply disappointing".
"We hope that Chairman Kim will take a different course… that he'll choose peace and prosperity over conflict and war," Pompeo said.
"We want peace, not confrontation," he added, with Seoul's unification ministry adding that a strategic weapon test "would not help denuclearisation negotiations".
Trump himself was emollient, saying that he thought Kim was "a man of his word" and that at their Singapore summit, "we did sign a contract, talking about denuclearisation".
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed deep concern over North Korea's announcement and "very much hopes that the tests will not resume," his spokesman said.
"Non-proliferation remains a fundamental pillar of global nuclear security," he added.
An ICBM launch would be likely to frustrate China, the North's key diplomatic backer and provider of trade and aid, which always stresses stability in a region it regards as its own back yard.
Key steps in North Korea's weapons development
Seoul (AFP) Jan 1, 2020 –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has declared an end to moratoriums on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests and threatened a demonstration of a "new strategic weapon".
Here are the key steps in the development of the regime's banned nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes:
– The beginnings, 1970s –
North Korea starts working in the late 1970s on a version of the Soviet Scud-B missile with a range of around 300 kilometres (around 200 miles), carrying out a first test in 1984.
Between 1987 and 1992, it begins developing longer-range missiles, including the Taepodong-1 (2,500 km/1,500 miles) and Taepodong-2 (6,700 km/4,200 miles).
The Taepodong-1 is test-fired over Japan in 1998 but the following year, Pyongyang declares a moratorium on such tests as ties with the United States improve.
– First nuclear test in 2006 –
It ends the moratorium in 2005, blaming the Bush administration's "hostile" policy, and carries out its first nuclear test on October 9, 2006.
In May 2009, there is a second underground nuclear test, several times more powerful than the first. Kim Jong Un succeeds his father Kim Jong Il — who dies in December 2011 — and oversees a third nuclear test in 2013.
– 2016, Japanese waters reached –
There is a fourth underground nuclear test in January 2016, which Pyongyang claims is a hydrogen bomb.
In March, Kim Jong Un claims the North has successfully miniaturised a thermonuclear warhead, and in April it test-fires a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
On August 3, it fires, for the first time, a ballistic missile directly into Japanese-controlled waters. Later that month, it successfully test-fires another submarine-launched ballistic missile.
There is a fifth nuclear test on September 9.
– 2017, Japan and Guam under threat –
Between February and May, the North tests a series of ballistic missiles that fall into the Sea of Japan. Pyongyang claims these are exercises to hit US bases in Japan.
A test on May 14 is of a "newly developed mid/long-range strategic ballistic rocket, Hwasong-12", Pyongyang says. It flies 700 kilometres (430 miles) before landing in the Sea of Japan.
Two months later, North Korea announces it successfully tested on July 4 — the US independence day — an ICBM capable of reaching Alaska, a gift for the "American bastards". There is a second successful ICBM test on July 28.
Hours after US President Donald Trump threatens Pyongyang on August 8 with "fire and fury" over its missile programme, the North says it is considering strikes near US strategic military installations in Guam.
– Largest nuclear test yet –
On September 3, North Korea conducts its sixth and largest nuclear test. Monitoring groups estimate a yield of 250 kilotons, which is 16 times the size of the 15-kiloton US bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945.
On September 15, less than a week after the UN adopts an eighth series of sanctions, North Korea fires an intermediate-range missile over Japan.
On November 20, Washington declares North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism, a day before adding to pressure on the isolated state with fresh sanctions.
On November 29, North Korea launches a new Hwasong-15 ICBM, which it claims could deliver a "super-large heavy warhead" anywhere on the US mainland.
Analysts agree the rocket is capable of reaching the US but voice scepticism that Pyongyang has mastered the advanced technology needed to allow the rocket to survive re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere.
Weeks later on December 13, Kim vows to make North Korea the "world's strongest nuclear power".
– 2018, Olympic detente triggers thaw –
In his New Year speech, Kim states that the development of North Korea's nuclear force had been completed.
Catalysed by the Winter Olympics in the South, a rapid diplomatic thaw begins in February.
On April 21, Pyongyang declares that nuclear blasts and ICBM launches will cease immediately and the atomic test site at Punggye-ri will be dismantled to "transparently guarantee" the end of testing.
Kim adds that the possession of nuclear weapons was "the firm guarantee by which our descendants can enjoy the most dignified and happiest life in the world".
– Fresh tensions –
Negotiations between the US and North Korea are largely deadlocked since the breakup of their Hanoi summit in February 2019, and Pyongyang sets Washington an end-of-year deadline for it to offer fresh concessions on sanctions relief, or it would adopt a "new way".
On New Year's Day 2020, North Korean state media reports Kim as saying a self-imposed ban on nuclear tests was no longer needed and warns the world "will witness a new strategic weapon" in the near future.
