North Korea has not launched a satellite since early 2016, and their space program has never succeeded in placing a functioning satellite into orbit. Boffins have been waiting for a new launch to take place for some time.
There were plenty of ballistic missile tests in 2017, but nothing on the space launch front. North Korea has previously spoken of plans for larger rockets and more satellites. It has also gained a lot of attention for recent upgrades to its spaceport at Tongchang-Ri, which now seems ready to handle a new generation of rockets.
Recent satellite photos also showed the movement of vehicles near a factory believed to be a ballistic missile production site. Thus, observers had reason to suspect that another North Korean satellite could have been launched by now.
So far, nothing has happened. Or at least, there's nothing else that can be seen. North Korea conceals much of its space activities behind closed doors, and access to its facilities by outsiders is extremely rare. It's possible that North Korea has a next-generation satellite launch vehicle stored at the launch site right now, waiting for an order from Kim Jong-Un to launch.
Or it could be the case that the vehicle movements were just designed to tease us. The North Koreans know that their nation is closely monitored by spy satellites. They could have staged a few drive-bys as an act of deception.
The North Korean space program could now be in something of a paradoxical phase. On the one hand, segments within the leadership would love to launch more satellites, for propaganda both inside and outside North Korea's borders.
It seems probable that the hardware to stage such a launch would be accessible, given the fact that North Korea has already developed infrastructure for satellite launches in the past. On the other hand, there could be strong political and economic forces acting to suspend the North Korean space program.
While the recent Hanoi summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un did not achieve any breakthroughs, it's possible that North Korea is still holding out hope for a deal.
The USA hasn't ruled this out either. A satellite launch could be seen as an act of bad faith that could disrupt those negotiations. Recent news headlines (mostly in South Korean media) also suggest that North Korea's economy is now experiencing another major crisis.
Hardship in North Korea is common, but economic sanctions could be making conditions even worse than they have been for years. Under such circumstances, a satellite launch could be seen as an expensive indulgence that would generate more cynicism than pride.
It's possible that the recent upgrade to North Korea's satellite launch centre was started in anticipation of better relations with the outside world. With the burden of sanctions eased and good vibrations all round, North Korea could afford a satellite launch, both economically and politically.
The failure of the Hanoi summit to improve conditions could have provoked a change in short-term plans for the space program, but North Korea could have elected to still finish their reconstruction work at the spaceport.
It's a way to hedge their bets. They can always resurrect the satellite launch campaign in the future, should the order be given. In the meantime, the spaceport can simply remain ready but unused.
For the moment, all we can do is watch and wait. But another launch in the immediate future is starting to seem unlikely.
