According to NanoMarkets, a leading industry analyst firm based here, the thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) market will produce the equivalent of 26 gigawatts (GW) by 2015 and will generate well over $20 billion in revenues in that same time frame.
This extraordinary growth rate is due in part to the rapid deployment of photovoltaics of all kinds, but also to the low cost, flexibility and manufacturing advantages associated with TFPV compared with the now dominant crystalline silicon PV.
By 2015, NanoMarkets expects that TFPV will account for more than half of the world's production of PV.
NanoMarkets findings are from a soon to be released report, "Thin Film Photovoltaics Markets: 2008 and Beyond" that will be available the week of July 21st.
Key findings of the report include:
– The recent success of cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar cells is likely to continue and by 2015 NanoMarkets expects that this will be the single largest segment of the TFPV market considered by active material with $8.7 billion in revenues. CdTe has many advantages such as a high optical absorption coefficient and a bandgap that has been described as close to perfect for PV. Also, many of the environmental concerns that have been associated with CdTe in the past seem to be dissipating.
– In spite of higher price points and outstanding manufacturing challenges, CIS/CIGS is still the star of the TFPV world. The technology promises to combine all the advantages of thin film with higher conversion efficiencies approaching those of conventional crystalline PV. NanoMarkets believes that the CIS/CIGS sector will produce almost $5.0 billion in revenues by 2015.
– Because of its low cost, low weight and ability to be fabricated onto flexible substrates TFPV is likely to be highly preferred for residential applications over conventional PV and by 2015 NanoMarkets expects a $2.3 billion market for the residential TF PV market.
