It's one of the world's oldest dictatorships, run by an enigmatic postman-turned-soldier who, true to form, is keeping the world guessing about whether his iron-fisted rule is drawing to an end.

As Myanmar gears up for its first election in 20 years — a vote the generals say will mark the dawn of democracy after almost five decades of autocracy — junta chief Than Shwe's intentions remain shrouded in mystery.

Speculation is rife that the ailing 77-year-old may step down from the position of commander-in-chief of Myanmar's "Tatmadaw" armed forces and hand over power to a younger generation of trusted lieutenants.

Few, however, expect the military — or its "senior general" — to relinquish the real power any time soon.

"I don't think he would be happy to retire," says Aung Zaw, founder and editor of the Irrawaddy, a Thailand-based magazine run by Burmese exiles that is a vocal critic of the regime.

"He will stay in power as much as he can because he's worried about his own future. He has created a lot of enemies over the past five or 10 years."

Than Shwe is not running as a candidate in the election, but if the junta-backed parties win, as expected, he could still become president — a post created by the 2008 constitution chosen by the newly elected parliament.

In this scenario, he would want to hand over power "to someone he trusts, who is a much weaker person," says Aung Zaw.

Than Shwe knows the risks only too well, having put his predecessor, the late dictator Ne Win, under house arrest in 2002 after his family members were convicted of plotting to overthrow his regime.

In 2004 the junta supremo — a Manchester United fan — ousted his own prime minister and military intelligence chief Khin Nyunt, who was later put in prison, then under house arrest.

Sunday's election has been widely condemned by Western powers and exiled democracy activists as a charade to legitimise army rule, and the generals' motives for holding it in the first place are the subject of much debate.

But observers agree on one thing — it is not because the military is up against the wall.

Myanmar's armed forces are believed to have doubled in size over the past two decades with an estimated 350,000 to 400,000 personnel.

"The Tatmadaw is not going to simply give up government and return to the barracks," says Professor Andrew Selth, an expert on Myanmar's military with Australia's Griffin Uni.

"The military government could be in power, in one guise or another, for many years to come," he adds.

In contrast to other pariah states, in Myanmar there are no towering statues of Than Shwe or elaborate myths spread to prop up his regime.

Unlike North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il, Myanmar's senior general does not have the image of a cognac-guzzling eccentric playboy. Nor is he reputed to have hit 11 holes-in-one on his first round of golf.

But what he lacks in charisma and personality cult, he has made up for with brute force — crushing uprisings, silencing dissent and locking up political prisoners, among them opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, his arch enemy.

Mark Canning, the former British ambassador to Myanmar who has met the junta chief several times, describes him as "small, plump, slow moving and physically unimposing.

"He projects no obvious sense of menace or intimidation. He's far from the image of a fire-breathing demagogue," Canning says.

"He gives every impression of being what he in fact is — someone who has manoeuvred himself from lowly beginnings to the top of the military pile, with guile, intrigue and, where necessary, force."

And some believe the enigmatic dictator may have at least one more card up his sleeve.

If he can find a successor who will be completely loyal he may take some kind of honorary position, while maintaining control from behind the scenes, says Myanmar academic Win Min.

But repeated references in state media recently to the junta boss as the "commander-in-chief" have been seen by some as a sign that he plans to remain at the helm of the military, possibly ceding some day-to-day duties.

So after forcing potential rivals such as junta number three Thura Shwe Mann and Prime Minister Thein Sein to retire from their army posts to stand in the election, Than Shwe himself could stay right where he is.

"The commander-in-chief is the most powerful person, so it's the safest position for him," says Win Min.

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