One of the issues coming increasing to the fore for Turkey, host of the forum, is that the Turkish Ministry of Energy is expected next month to finalize a decision to construct Turkey's first nuclear power plant, to be built in Akkuyu, near the popular Mediterranean tourist resort city of Mersin. In the wake of the nuclear-power accidents in 1979 at Three Mile Island and at Chernobyl seven years later, Turkish environmentalists are aghast at the project. But Turkey currently imports 90 percent of its energy needs, so the project received a governmental boost during last year's record-high oil prices, which had a significant impact on the Turkish economy. To add to the environmentalists' concerns, the 4,800-megawatt Akkuyu facility would be situated in a region frequently subjected to earthquakes. An active fault line, the Ecemis fault, runs only 15 miles from the Akkuyu site. On June 27, 1998, a major earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3 occurred in nearby Adana, causing damage estimated at $1 billion, killing 150, injuring 1,000 and damaging 74,300 buildings.

Nor is Akkuyu the only earthquake-prone zone in the country. Turkey is situated in one of the most seismically active regions in the world, rating sixth in the world of nations suffering annual earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or greater. Since 1997, earthquakes in Turkey have killed 950 citizens while inflicting an average annual economic loss of more than $1 billion during the same period.

The environmentalists' concerns have been bolstered by specialist studies. In 1999 Earthquake Forecasts Inc. President Karl Buckthought analyzed 16 years of previous data on Turkish seismic activity and concluded that over the 40-year life of the proposed Akkuyu reactor, the probability of damage due to an earthquake is at least 50 percent.

The project has been highly contentious since Akkuyu was first chosen as a nuclear-plant site in 1976. In 1992 the government attempted to begin construction, but action by a coalition of 52 environmental groups initially stymied operations. In July 2000 environmentalists thought they had achieved victory when Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit cited financial concerns and canceled Akkuyu, commenting that the government could not afford the facility's estimated $3 billion to $4 billion cost while it was committed to spending cuts in the face of severe inflationary pressure on the Turkish economy. Ecevit told reporters after a Cabinet meeting, "The world is abandoning nuclear power." He added, "It is unnecessary for us, for the time being, to invest in nuclear energy. Our economic-stability program could be seriously hampered."

Lest the environmentalists were tempted to celebrate, Ecevit made it clear that the decision was made for economic reasons as Turkey, then in the midst of a three-year anti-inflation program supported by the International Monetary Fund, had to reassess its current priorities. "Once the stability program has reached its aims, nuclear plants will come back onto the agenda," he said. To underline his message that the cancellation was temporary, the prime minister said, "The cancellation of the Akkuyu tender does not mean that we have abandoned nuclear energy."

Hammered by last year's energy prices, Ecevit's caution has returned with a vengeance, and neither side seems set for compromise. Despite the public concern, the government is moving forward. On March 17 Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko made an official visit to Ankara to meet with Turkish Energy Minister Hilmi Guler, during which he asked when the Turkish government would make its final decision about whether the Russian-Turkish Atomstroiexport-Inter Rao-Park Teknik consortium would be allowed to construct Akkuyu. Guler replied that governmental assessments of the group's bid were in their final phase.

Given the country's chronic deficit-payment problem with energy imports, Guler sees little alternative to Turkey embracing atomic power, as government concerns spiked last year with record-high oil prices. After meeting in Ankara a year ago with 150 scientists from the Turkey Atomic Energy Agency, known by its Turkish initials TAEK, Guler told journalists, "Nuclear energy is not only a preference; it is a must." Seeking to reassure the public and allay safety concerns, Guler added, "Research on nuclear energy by TAEK and related departments of universities has been going on for 56 years."

Now that the issue has resurfaced in seemingly its final stages, environmentalists' opposition to the project has now even spread to the capital, Ankara, where on March 17 police detained seven Greenpeace activists as they scaled a tall building to protest government plans to build Akkuyu.

Activist Sabahat Arslan, head of the Mersin region chapter of the environmental activist group Tertip Komitesi, said, "In Ankara, the government's lack of oversight results in citizens receiving water polluted with heavy metals, including arsenic, when businesses are unable to provide sufficient safety for their workers, and now the government is trying to sell to the people the idea that nuclear power is safe. Given the lack of concern over citizens' lives, a disaster at a nuclear power plant would come as no surprise."

What will happen next month is anyone's guess as the Turkish economy has suffered from the global downturn. Environmentalists and nuclear supporters will be able to follow whether Arslan's or Guler's vision of the future is correct in Turkey's vibrant press.

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